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"NAR Forecasts 4.71 Million Existing-Home Sales, Improved Outlook for Home Buyers in 2024"

Austin, Texas named top real estate market with most pent-up housing demand next year

WASHINGTON (December 13, 2023) – "NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts that 4.71 million existing homes will be sold, the housing market is expected to grow, and Austin, Texas will be the top real estate market to watch in 2024 and beyond. Yun unveiled the association's forecast yesterday during NAR's fifth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead.

Yun predicts home sales will begin to rise next year – by 13.5% compared to 2023, and the median home price will reach $389,500 – an increase of 0.9% from this year.

"Metro markets in southern states will likely outperform others due to faster job increases, while markets in the Midwest will…

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"The housing market is slowing but home prices are still going up"

Austin Business Journal writes, "this year's housing market, beset by high interest rates, is on track for the lowest number of homes sold in 12 years.

Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage financing organization, projects total home sales in 2023 to be about 4.8 million, the lowest since 2011, and only slightly higher in 2024 at 4.9 million. The total amount of mortgage originations for 2023 is expected to be about $1.56 trillion, down from what Fannie Mae had originally projected to be $1.6 trillion this year.

Fannie Mae sees personal spending to be at unsustainable levels relative to American incomes and it projects a "modest economic contraction" in the first half of 2024, combined with mortgage rates hovering above 7%.

And while…

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"Pearlstone envisions denser Austin, forges ahead with $700M in urban housing"

Austin Business Journal writes, "amid a year of muted activity for commercial real estate development, Pearlstone Partners LLC is betting big on the continued allure of Austin — it has three new projects up its sleeve that could total about $700 million in construction costs. That's on top of Robert Lee and his team forging ahead on three under-construction projects expected to deliver from early 2024 through 2025.

The Austin-based company just unveiled details on three multifamily communities planned to rise on prime sites, spread from Rainey Street to the northwest side of the Central Business District. All three are still in the investment phase, meaning they may not deliver for a few years.

Demand for housing has slowed across the board in…

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"High interest rates aren't deterring homebuyers in Austin"

CultureMap Austin writes, "real estate experts now have a much clearer picture regarding the resilience shown in Austin's housing market. The latest Austin Board of Realtors' (ABoR) report revealed that July 2022 was when the Austin-Round Rock housing market initially started stabilizing. If current trends continue, ABoR says 2023 will have a "strong finish."

"We now have a direct year-over-year comparison of when our market began stabilizing, and the big fluctuations we’ve previously seen have started to even out," said 2023 ABoR president Ashley Jackson in the report. "Potential buyers who have been on the fence about purchasing a home should know interest rates are settling, and now is the time to act."

Even with interest rates beginning to…

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"DFW, Austin crowned ultra luxury queens"

TheRealDeal reports, "Austin’s ultra luxury market has burst onto the scene in recent years, nipping at the heels of the Dallas-Fort Worth region, which has the top luxury market in Texas.

Five homes listed at $10 million or more sold in Austin last year, totalling almost $56 million, and 11 sold in DFW for a combined $146 million, according to a report from Compass. 

Super high-end homes sales in DFW are nothing new, but it’s become a revelation in Austin, where residential sales of $10 million or higher were nearly unheard of several years ago. In 2019 and 2020, no such sales were on record. In 2022, the market exploded, however, resulting in four transactions above the $10 million threshold.

“While a $6 million sale was noteworthy in 2019,…

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"Austin housing market more stable after cooling 2022 demand, report finds"

CultureMap Austin writes, "In a slightly contradictory year, the 2022 Central Texas housing market saw both higher barriers to affordability and a shift toward buyers.

According to the Austin Board of Realtors' last monthly report of 2022 and year-end overview, inventory rose, but so did interest rates and construction costs. Prices rose, too, reaching a new annual record for the Austin-Round Rock MSA at $503,000 (up 11.4 percent). Travis County mirrored the pattern, as median prices increased 10.6 percent to $575,000.

Demand in the MSA lagged while supply stayed the same: New listings stayed steady but 33,547 homes were sold, down 18.3 percent from the previous year, and they generally stayed on the market for 31 days, 11 days longer. This was…

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"Housing market in Round Rock, Pflugerville, Hutto moving toward stabilization, report shows"

Community Impact writes, "the latest data from the Austin Board of Realtors shows a continuing trend of stabilizing home prices and supply in Round Rock, Pflugerville and Hutto.

According to the ABoR's monthly report for October, the median price of a home sold across the three cities in October was $457,876. While a slight increase over September's median price of $450,000, that price is still lower than the prior two months—$475,000 in August and $476,458 in July.

Additionally, $457,876 is a 5.4% year-over-year increase from October 2021's median price of $434,495.

By comparison, the broader Central Texas market saw a median sale price of $421,149 in October, while the city of Austin saw a $555,000 median sale price.

ABoR President Cord Shiflet said…

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"Why is the real estate boom in Austin slowing down?"

KVUE Austin reports, "more than two years ago now, 2020 saw what many real estate agents and developers called a gold rush in Austin, with homes being sold in a matter of hours. Now, the market appears to be slowing down.

"It's brought a lot of people here and it was just a perfect storm," said Chester Wilson, one of the owners of Greater Austin Builders.

Two years ago, many set their sights on Austin.

"Gold rush is a perfect term for it. I've been doing this for 25 years. It was unlike anything we've ever seen," said Cord Shiflet, the president of the Austin Board of Realtors.

However, Shiflet said Austin's real estate boom isn't going anywhere but that it's just slowing down.

He noted that rather than…

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