Baby boomers continue to dominate the national housing market. GETTY IMAGES

Austin Business Journal writes, "Baby boomers own an outsized share of homes in America — and nearly half of them say they’ll never sell.

About 43% of baby boomers say they will never sell their home, the highest of any generational group, according to a survey of U.S. residents ages 18 to 65 by real estate firm Redfin Corp. (Nasdaq: RDFN). The biggest single reason cited for staying in place is that their home is almost or completely paid off, while others say they like where they live.

About 30% say they are staying in their current home because prices are too high and 18% said they are staying because they don’t want to give up their low mortgage interest rate.

The survey results are playing out in real time, with a recent Redfin analysis showing just 25 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands in the first eight moths of 2024 — the lowest in decades. And with home prices up about 40% since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, and current mortgage rates far higher than they were in 2019, moving isn’t as attractive to those that don’t have to.

“The just-because movers — those who just want a bigger or nicer house — are staying put, mostly because it’s so expensive to buy a new house,” said Marije Kruythoff, a Redfin Premier agent in Los Angeles, in the report. “The people who are selling are doing so because they need to. Either they’re relocating to a different part of the country or they’re moving due to a major life event like having a baby or taking a new job on the opposite side of the city."

Other surveys also show a strong desire among older Americans not to sell. A survey by Clever Real Estate found 54% of baby boomers never plan to sell their homes, primarily because of the financial security it provides. 

While it's typical for older Americans to occupy a larger share of homeownership, the share of homes owned by Americans older than 55 years grew from 44.3% in 2008 to 54% in 2023, according to a study by Construction Coverage. Meanwhile, Americans ages 35 to 54 saw a decline in homeownership, with their share dropping from 42.3% in 2008 to 34% in 2023.

Baby boomers specifically, who were between the ages of 60 and 78 in 2024, account for 20% of the population but make up more than 37% of homeowners nationwide. 

Will aging baby boomers eventually shift housing market?

Amid a national housing market that's long been starved for inventory and continues to be constrained by rapidly rising home prices, the discussion has turned to whether the aging and eventual death of baby boomers will impact the housing market. 

A study by the Mortgage Bankers Association found the projected excess supply of houses from baby boomer mortality over the next 10 years would only result in a “modest” amount of additional housing hitting the market — about 250,000 units.

Since the demand for housing is both highly predicable, falling largely into patterns based on age, the report said this demographic change would not have a measurable impact on house-price growth.

Pete Evering, head of business development at Utopia Property Management in San Diego, said the outsized homeownership stake held by baby boomers points to a larger affordability problem. Baby boomers first entered the housing market during a period of better affordability relative to income and benefited from decades of rising property values, allowing them to invest in additional properties — which also drives up demand and prices. 

“In contrast, millennials and [Generation] Z are grappling with stagnant wages, record levels of student debt and rising costs of living, which severely limits their ability to save for a down payment or qualify for a mortgage,” Evering said in an email. “The result is a growing population of renters who are locked out of the wealth-building opportunities that homeownership traditionally provides.”

Barring drastic government action, Evering doesn’t see the situation changing anytime soon, and housing unaffordability will continue to be a fact of life for younger people. That will drive those individuals toward alternative housing solutions, such as tiny homes, co-living spaces or multi-generational households, to help mitigate costs. 

“These shifts point to a potential reimagining of the American Dream, where traditional homeownership is no longer the ultimate goal but rather one of many options in a broader spectrum of living arrangements,” he said.

Baby boomers are staying in their homes longer

A separate Redfin report from 2024 found the length of time people stay in their homes has more or less doubled since 2006. In that year, the median homeowner spent about 6.5 years in a home, which grew to a peak of 13.4 years in 2020 but dipped to 11.9 years in 2023.

About 56% of baby boomers have lived in their home for at least 10 years, according to the study, while about 35% of Gen Xers lived in their home for at least 10 years. Just 7% of millennials stayed in their home for 10 years or longer.

The homes older Americans own also tend to be larger. A separate Redfin analysis found empty-nester baby boomers own twice as many three-bedroom-plus homes than millennials with kids. 

A separate report from home-improvement company Leaf Home and Morning Consult found 73% of baby boomers have been in their current homes for 11 years or more, and over half own homes built in 1980 or earlier that have never been renovated. A majority say they have no plans to do so, either.

"The housing market is caught in a generational tug-of-war. Boomers will soon face aging-in-place hurdles, while millennials will face the surprise of homes in need of major upgrades," said Jon Bostock, CEO of Leaf Home, in a news release announcing the findings. "With an aging and ignored inventory of homes available in the next decade, we may see a crisis that will overwhelm the home-improvement industry and strain the budgets of inheriting millennials, impacting the housing market.""

 

Source: Austin Business Journal 

Written by: Andy Medici

Published: January 9, 2025

Posted by Grossman & Jones Group on

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